The National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation says that small-business indicators provide accurate economic forecasts months sooner than even preliminary official government numbers are published.

NFIB contends that small-business indicators forecast the level of unemployment four to five months in advance with remarkable accuracy. And their Index of Business Optimism more accurately forecasts changes in gross domestic product than the government’s Leading Indicators, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index or the Conference Board Index.

NFIB’s monthly “Small Business Economic Trends” are released midmonth on TRENDS

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